Russia Could Attack a NATO Country Within Months: Danish Intelligence

Russia could launch a limited military attack against a NATO member within the coming months, Denmark’s defence intelligence service has warned, in one of the strongest recent warnings from a Western security agency.

In a report published Thursday, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service said there was a “low but growing risk” that Russia could carry out long-range strikes against NATO infrastructure supporting Ukraine or launch a limited incursion into a neighboring country involving a small number of troops. Such forces could potentially operate without identifying insignia.

The warning came just hours after a fire broke out at a Starlink satellite station in central Poland. Polish authorities described the incident as an apparent act of sabotage. Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said the fire appeared to have been deliberately started to disable the station, disrupting internet access for several institutions, including the Ukrainian military.

Gawkowski said it had not yet been established who was responsible for the fire, although he said there were “many signs” that the incident was consistent with what he described as Russia’s new approach to attacks. He also characterized the incident as part of a broader pattern of hybrid warfare.

Starlink has become an important component of Ukraine’s military communications. The incident in Poland occurred amid a series of suspected Russian sabotage operations targeting European infrastructure linked to support for Ukraine. Earlier this month, Germany publicly blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport. Other incidents, including fires at drone factories and suspected sabotage of rail infrastructure, have also been investigated for possible Russian links. Moscow has denied involvement.

The Danish intelligence report warned that Russia could intensify its hybrid attacks against European countries in the coming months, potentially using more disruptive methods. These could include destructive cyberattacks capable of disrupting essential societal functions and sabotage operations carrying a significant risk of casualties.

The term “hybrid attacks” generally refers to non-conventional methods intended to pressure or destabilize an adversary, including cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation campaigns.

According to the report, one objective of such Russian actions could be to divert European resources away from supporting Ukraine and deepen divisions within NATO if the alliance failed to reach a collective response to an attack.

However, Danish intelligence assessed that an outright Russian invasion of a NATO country remained “highly unlikely,” while emphasizing that such a scenario could not be completely ruled out.

The Danish services also warned that Moscow could seek to test NATO’s Article 5, which commits member states to collective defense. They said Russia could potentially calculate that NATO members would fail to respond collectively, particularly if Moscow believed the United States was unable or unwilling to defend its European allies in a direct conflict.

Concerns have continued to grow among NATO members over the alliance’s unity and the extent of US support for European allies under President Donald Trump in the event of a Russian attack.

Questions about European unity have also emerged. Last week, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico cast doubt on his country’s commitment to NATO’s collective-defense principle, saying he did not want Slovakia drawn into a military conflict simply because of Article 5.

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia continued to pose a threat beyond Ukraine, including to Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states. He also accused Moscow of showing little respect for the sovereignty of countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

The Danish assessment comes as intelligence officials across Europe increasingly warn that Russia could pursue more assertive actions against NATO countries. However, European officials differ over how imminent such actions may be and what form they could take.

 Source: The Guardian report