Iran War: From promised victory to prolonged stalemate

More than two months into the conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump is facing growing risks that the standoff with Iran could drag on indefinitely, leaving the United States and the world in a more dangerous position than before the war began.

Despite early promises of a swift victory, the conflict has reached a deadlock with no clear path to resolution. Both sides remain entrenched in their positions. A recent proposal by Iran to restart negotiations was quickly rejected by Trump, highlighting the deep divide between the two sides.

The prolonged impasse is taking a toll on U.S. domestic politics. Rising gasoline prices, increasing inflation, and economic uncertainty have pushed Trump’s approval rating down to 34%, posing a serious threat to Republican prospects in the upcoming midterm elections.

While U.S. and Israel strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s military infrastructure, many of Trump’s core objectives remain unmet. Chief among them is halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to remain intact, preserving Tehran’s potential pathway to a nuclear weapon.

Additionally, efforts to curb Iran’s support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas have not succeeded.

Control over the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical strategic factor. Iran’s ability to disrupt this key global oil transit route has triggered a major energy shock, strengthening its leverage even under military pressure.

Within the U.S. administration, multiple options are being considered, including a prolonged naval blockade, renewed targeted strikes, or partial disengagement. However, none offer a clear or immediate solution.

European diplomats expect the conflict to persist, with some analysts warning it could evolve into a “frozen conflict” — a prolonged stalemate without a definitive resolution.

Trump’s initial call for the Iranian people to rise against their government has gone largely unanswered. Instead, Iran’s leadership has grown more hardline, consolidating power in the face of external pressure.

Analysts suggest that neither side is in a position to claim victory. The conflict is increasingly becoming a long-term strategic struggle, with far-reaching implications for global energy markets, economic stability, and international security.