India Banks on Modi-Trump Friendship to Steer Through Challenging Times with the US

New Delhi, India — As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House after a surprising victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the recent US presidential election, India finds itself at a potential crossroads in its relationship with its largest export destination. The looming specter of high tariffs and anti-immigrant policies from Trump’s campaign rhetoric has raised concerns about the future of India-US bilateral ties.

Trade Challenges Ahead

Throughout his re-election campaign, Trump repeatedly voiced strong opinions on trade, targeting multiple countries, including India. He labeled India as a "major charger" of tariffs, criticizing its trade policies and vowing to impose reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports. This has sparked fears of a trade war, which could severely impact India’s economy.

The United States is a crucial trade partner for India, consistently ranking among the top two destinations for Indian exports. Bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at approximately $120 billion in 2023. Experts believe that any imposition of high tariffs could disrupt this relationship.

“India-US relations could actually get strained if all these election promises that Trump made are implemented,” said Biswajit Dhar, a distinguished professor at the Council for Social Development in New Delhi. “If he goes through with them, this will be very, very bad news for India.”

Immigration and Workforce Concerns

In addition to trade, Trump’s hardline stance on immigration poses another challenge for India. The US is home to a significant number of Indian expatriates, many of whom work in the technology sector under H-1B visas. Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and potential tightening of visa rules could limit opportunities for skilled Indian workers, affecting both individuals and Indian tech companies heavily reliant on the US market.

Modi-Trump Personal Connection: A Silver Lining?

Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong personal rapport with Trump could play a pivotal role in navigating these turbulent waters. Their camaraderie has been well-documented, from the Howdy Modi event in Houston to the Namaste Trump rally in Ahmedabad. These displays of mutual respect and warmth have solidified a unique relationship between the two leaders.

“Modi’s bonhomie with Trump could be the saving grace for India-US relations,” Dhar noted. “Their personal chemistry might allow India to negotiate better terms and avoid some of the harsher policies Trump has proposed.”

Strategic Importance of the Partnership

Beyond trade and immigration, the India-US partnership holds strategic significance, particularly in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Both nations share common goals in maintaining regional stability and promoting democratic values.

India may leverage this strategic alignment to strengthen ties and push for exemptions or more favorable terms in trade and immigration policies. Defense cooperation, another pillar of the bilateral relationship, could also serve as a buffer against potential friction in other areas.

A Critical Juncture

As Trump prepares to take office, India faces a delicate balancing act. While the prospect of tariffs and stricter immigration policies looms large, the Modi-Trump friendship offers a glimmer of hope. The coming months will test the resilience of one of the world’s most significant bilateral relationships.

The stakes are high for both nations, with the potential to redefine their economic and strategic partnership in the years ahead.