Myanmar's Devastating Earthquake: International Cooperation and Diplomatic Advantages for the Military Regime

Myanmar's Devastating Earthquake: International Cooperation and Diplomatic Advantages for the Military Regime

Myanmar, April 2, 2025 — Following Myanmar's deadliest natural disaster, the position of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has been strengthened, as diplomatic channels that had been closed for over a year have been reopened after the earthquake. Following the 7.7 magnitude earthquake last Friday, which killed over 2,700 people, Min Aung Hlaing has found a new diplomatic opportunity amidst Myanmar’s crisis.

After the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing was preparing to attend a regional summit in Thailand, where he was contacting leaders of other countries by phone to meet with them. While it is still unclear whether Min Aung Hlaing will attend the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) summit, the disaster has helped end his diplomatic isolation.

Analyst Angshuman Chowdhury says, "This is an opportunity for Myanmar’s regional powers, such as India, China, and Russia, who would want to increase their influence." He further stated, "Min Aung Hlaing can use this opportunity to solidify his leadership as indispensable in Myanmar."

In the past week, Min Aung Hlaing has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, resulting in international aid starting to flow. Prior to this, due to the pressure of the war and defeats faced by the junta government, Min Aung Hlaing had become isolated on the international stage.

Analysts suggest that this earthquake could complicate Myanmar’s battlefield and make it harder to maintain support among local populations, intensifying the resistance struggle.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s junta government is trying to seize the opportunity to receive aid, but it is facing obstacles in reaching opposition groups and the general public. China, India, Russia, and Southeast Asian countries have sent aid to Myanmar, but military operations by the junta continue.

Additionally, if Min Aung Hlaing participates in the BIMSTEC summit, his international legitimacy could increase further, especially as his relationship with India strengthens. India has already quickly sent aid following the earthquake.

Min Aung Hlaing may also get an opportunity to meet with regional leaders, including Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Thai politician Thaksin Shinawatra. However, Thailand is taking a cautious stance as it shares a long border with Myanmar and faces significant economic and security risks.

Analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak states, "Thailand has to work very carefully because they have a lot at stake in their relationship with Myanmar."

This situation has opened up a new diplomatic opportunity for Myanmar’s junta government, although internal conflicts and violence within the country continue.