Sudden Change of Power in Syria: Is China's Strategic-Diplomatic Position Facing Challenges?

Sudden Change of Power in Syria: Is China's Strategic-Diplomatic Position Facing Challenges?

The end of 24 years of rule by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the takeover of Damascus by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has presented China with new challenges. This change forces China to reconsider its long-standing strategy towards Syria, its ally.

The Fall of Assad's Government and China’s Response
On December 8, the Assad government fell following a sudden rebel attack. The rebels seized Damascus, marking the beginning of a new political era in Syria. The interim Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali announced that responsibility for the country would be transferred to the new government through talks with the rebels.

Just a year before the fall of Assad's government, President Assad had visited China, meeting President Xi Jinping. This visit attracted international attention to China’s pro-Assad stance and its role in Syria's reconstruction.

China's Diplomatic and Economic Challenges
China has long supported Assad’s government. However, the nature of China’s relationship with the new government remains uncertain. Whether the new government will welcome Chinese investment depends on its strategic position.

China has already developed economic ties with Syria, investing in infrastructure development through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, political instability has increased the risks for China’s investments.

Radicalism and China’s Concerns
The rise of radicalism in Syria is a major concern for China. There are particular fears about the spread of extremist influence into China’s Xinjiang region. Groups like the Turkistan Islamic Party, operating among Syria’s rebel factions, could pose a threat to China.

China's Future Strategy
Despite the political changes in Syria, analysts believe China will continue its policy of prioritizing stability and regional sovereignty. China is likely to follow a pragmatic approach in maintaining relations with Syria’s new government.

If the new Syrian government can ensure political stability, China will likely play a more active role in maintaining its economic interests. However, the extent of China's influence will depend on the actions of the new Syrian government and the regional diplomatic environment.