Trump’s Middle East gamble: fragile peace ahead

Trump Secures Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Hamas — But Can He Keep Netanyahu on Board?
WASHINGTON, Oct. 14 — U.S. President Donald Trump has achieved a major diplomatic breakthrough by brokering a ceasefire and hostage-release agreement between Israel and Hamas, signed in Egypt on Monday. The move marks one of Trump’s biggest foreign policy victories, but experts warn that keeping Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu committed to the deal may prove difficult.

Trump’s 20-point peace plan, which persuaded Hamas to return all Israeli hostages, still leaves key issues unresolved — including whether Hamas will disarm and play any future role in governing Gaza. While this vagueness helped secure initial agreement, it also means tough negotiations lie ahead.

Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have condemned the truce and threatened to quit the government. With Israeli elections looming, Netanyahu may face pressure to abandon or toughen his stance.

U.S. officials say Trump’s strong backing of Israel — from recognizing Jerusalem as its capital to supporting its military operations — has earned him leverage over Netanyahu. But past disagreements, such as Israeli strikes in Syria and Gaza, highlight the limits of that influence.

Analysts say Trump’s political popularity in Israel gives him a unique edge. “Trump can either support Netanyahu’s political future or sabotage it,” said Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert in Washington.

Still, tensions remain. Hamas has not publicly committed to disarm, and many Israelis reject even the idea of a future Palestinian state — a key element that helped Trump win Arab nations’ support. Diplomats caution that failure to implement the terms could reignite conflict.

For now, Trump’s deal offers a brief pause in years of bloodshed — but lasting peace will
depend on whether he can keep Netanyahu on board in the turbulent months ahead.

(Reuters)