Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election, securing both the Electoral College and the popular vote. He became only the second Republican candidate since 1988 to win the popular vote. While Trump's victory is clear, analysts argue that it cannot be classified as a historically huge win.
Clear Victory in Seven Swing States
Trump won seven key swing states this year—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. His victory in these states was significantly larger compared to Joe Biden's performance in 2020.
In these seven states, Trump's combined victory margin was nearly 760,000 votes, which is sixteen times larger than in the 2000 election, where the decision over Florida's recount was taken to the Supreme Court between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
How Historic Was the Victory?
Trump's 312 Electoral College votes surpassed the outcomes of four of the last seven elections of this century. However, his win is far from matching the landslide victories of Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Richard Nixon in 1972, or Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Polls suggest that Trump won at a time when there was widespread dissatisfaction with the party in the White House. Since 1932, only six candidates have won such a large share of the vote as an opposition party candidate, similar to Trump.
Mixed Results for Down-Ballot Republicans
Despite Trump's success, the victory did not offer substantial advantages for down-ballot Republicans. It is expected that Republicans will maintain a limited majority in the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, Democrats have won Senate elections in four key swing states.
What Does This Victory Mean for the Future?
Analysts believe that the 2024 election did not signal general support for the Republican Party. Political scientist Barry Burden from the University of Wisconsin stated, "Trump's victory was solid and credible, but it was not an overall victory for the Republican Party."
In this century, both major parties have alternated in controlling the presidency, Senate, or House. Since 2000, control has shifted 16 times across 13 electoral cycles.
Analysts suggest that if the current trends persist, Democrats may be in a strong position for the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election. Political scientist Jack Pitney from Claremont McKenna College commented, "If Trump fails to bring about dramatic changes in the national mood, Democrats will likely have a good chance in the future."
