Tensions Rise Between Turkey and Israel Over Post-Assad Syria; Former Allies at Risk of Conflict

Tensions Rise Between Turkey and Israel Over Post-Assad Syria; Former Allies at Risk of Conflict

Ankara, Turkey — The tensions between Turkey and Israel have escalated to a new level following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Experts warn that the clash of interests between the two countries over Syria’s future could lead to military confrontation.

Turkey, which has long supported anti-Assad factions, seeks a stable and unified government in Syria, where a central authority controls the entire country. Last week, Turkey welcomed an agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syria’s interim government to merge. Turkish defense officials have stated that cooperation will be increased to strengthen Syria’s security.

Israel’s Concerns: A Fragmented Syria and Jihadi Threat

Israel remains skeptical about Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharar, due to his alleged past ties with al-Qaeda. Turkey’s growing influence in Syria is also a major concern for Israel. According to experts, Israel prefers a weak and divided post-Assad Syria to limit the influence of Iran and its allies. Israel has already occupied territories in southern Syria and conducted airstrikes on remaining Assad military targets.

According to Aslı Aydıntaşbaş from the Washington-based Brookings Institution, "Syria has now become a battleground for a proxy war between Turkey and Israel. The two nations have conflicting positions on nearly every issue related to Syria." Turkish President Erdoğan has been a vocal critic of Israel’s policies on Palestine, while Israel remains angered by Turkey’s support for Hamas.

Religious Communities in Crisis and Regional Interventions

Tensions are rising in southern Syria, particularly concerning the Druze community. Israel has sent food aid to the Druze population and granted them work permits in the Golan Heights. However, al-Sharar recently condemned Israel’s expansionist policies, calling them "a threat to regional security." Meanwhile, Turkey has accused Israel of fueling Kurdish, Druze, and Alawite demands for autonomy.

Sectarian Violence and Allegations of Bias

Last week, retaliatory attacks against Assad-loyalist Alawite factions resulted in the deaths of hundreds of civilians. Turkey condemned the violence as "a conspiracy to destroy Syria’s territorial integrity," while Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel labeled it "ethnic cleansing by jihadist groups," claiming that Turkey was backing them.

Nimrod Goren, president of the Mitvim Institute, stated, "A weakened Syria might serve Israel’s security interests, but diplomatic dialogue is crucial to avoiding direct conflict with Turkey." An Israeli think tank has also advised increasing engagement with Turkey to reduce the risk of a direct Israel-Turkey confrontation in Syria.

The geopolitical struggle between Turkey and Israel over post-Assad Syria has become a significant challenge to Middle Eastern stability. Experts warn that if either country crosses the other’s red lines, a broader regional war cannot be ruled out.