What Could Be the New Global Political Equation in the Trump-Modi Meeting?

What Could Be the New Global Political Equation in the Trump-Modi Meeting?

New Delhi, February 12, 2025 — The long-standing good relationship between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump may now be put to the test as Modi embarks on a visit to Washington on Wednesday, where he may face new tariffs and import tax threats.

India, considered a crucial partner for the U.S. in the Southeast Asian region to counter China, is set to host a summit of four countries — the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia — later this year. As a strategic partner of the U.S., India has so far been spared from new tariffs, and the two leaders have developed a personal relationship. Modi, who has faced criticism over democratic backsliding in India, welcomed Trump’s return to the White House, seeking to reshape India’s relationship with the West while not condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine.

However, Trump has repeatedly referred to India as a "tariff king" and has pressed India on deporting migrants. In response, New Delhi has shown willingness to lower tariffs on U.S. products, accept the return of Indian citizens, and purchase American oil.

But with the looming tariff threats, the question arises as to how much the good rapport between the two leaders will matter and how far India will go to strike a deal.

Body Language Will Be Closely Observed

Modi had established a good working relationship with Trump during his first term, and the two have several areas of convergence, where they can minimize friction without compromising on key national interests, said Meera Shankar, India’s former ambassador to the U.S.

“Most other partners prepare their reciprocal lists from the outset, as it’s a leverage point when negotiating,” Shankar added, expressing hope that India would “find the right balance between firmness and flexibility” on the tariffs issue.

Modi, boosted by his ruling Hindu nationalist party’s victory in a high-stakes state election, said before leaving for Washington that the visit would be an “opportunity to build upon” the collaboration during Trump’s first term and “deepen our partnership” in areas such as technology, trade, defense, and energy.

What Has Trump Said?

In a conversation with Modi in January, Trump emphasized the importance of India buying more American-made military equipment and weapons, as well as reducing the trade imbalance. Last year, the U.S. imported $50 billion more from India than it sold to the country.

A White House readout from the time stated that Trump “emphasized the importance of India increasing its procurement of American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship.”

However, if Trump improves relations between the U.S. and China, India may have to reassess its position.

Will There Be an Agreement on Resolving Hostile Relations?

The U.S. is currently India’s largest trade partner, with a $50 billion trade deficit. In 2023, the Indo-U.S. goods and services trade amounted to about $190.1 billion.

India depends on Russia for nearly 60% of its defense supplies, but doubts have arisen regarding future supplies due to the Ukraine war, and New Delhi has started focusing more on the U.S., Israel, the U.K., and other countries.

Modi’s Visit Is Significant

Analyst Raja Mohan of the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore said Modi's visit could be a good time to advance Indo-U.S. relations.

“India’s diplomatic skills will be tested, so the general goodwill between Trump and Modi must be translated into concrete outcomes,” Mohan said.