Extension of Myanmar's Military Rule by Six Months Amid Continued Violence and Uncertainty Over Elections

Extension of Myanmar's Military Rule by Six Months Amid Continued Violence and Uncertainty Over Elections

Myanmar's military government has extended the country's state of emergency for another six months. The decision was made during a meeting of the National Defense and Security Council held in the capital Naypyidaw on Friday. The extension was approved under Article 425 of the 2008 Constitution.

The National Defense and Security Council stated in a press release, "All members, including General Min Aung Hlaing, unanimously agreed to extend the state of emergency."

Lack of Peace and Stability Delaying Elections

State-controlled media outlet MRTV reported that peace and stability are crucial for holding a "free and fair" election. However, ongoing violence and rebellion in various regions of the country have made the military government believe that the conditions are not yet suitable for elections.

Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, which ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government, Myanmar has been in a state of extreme turmoil. The military claimed that widespread fraud had occurred in the 2020 election, although they failed to provide any evidence to substantiate their claim.

Promises of Elections and Military Defeats

Since the coup, the military government has repeatedly extended the state of emergency to consolidate power. Although military chief Min Aung Hlaing had promised to hold elections by August 2023, armed resistance and repeated defeats of the military across the country made it impossible.

According to the U.S. Institute of Peace, the military is currently facing an "unprecedented crisis." Since late 2023, the military has suffered a series of major defeats in the northern and western regions of the country.

Elections Likely in 2025

Despite mounting internal and international pressure, it is hoped that the long-awaited national elections may take place by late 2025. Experts suggest that if the military government lifts the state of emergency by the end of July, elections must be held within six months as per the Constitution.

Elections in Myanmar are generally held in November. Analyst Richard Horsey told Al Jazeera, "The state of emergency may be lifted by the end of July or earlier. Elections could then be held by November."

Return to the 2008 Constitution

Horsey further noted that once the state of emergency ends and elections are held, the country will again operate under the 2008 military-drafted Constitution. This could be seen as a favorable development for the military and its key ally, China.

Meanwhile, opposition groups have threatened to boycott the elections, calling it an attempt by the military government to legitimize its power.